Thursday, March 27, 2014

Why India's fortunes will not change even with a new Government



When the American government envisaged a fully developed economy and a society with equal rights for all, the forefathers of the nation introduced measures that laid foundation for a long term success. To begin with, America introduced patent laws where intellectual property was preserved by the authorities and subsequently rewarded. If your patent was approved and the government foresaw potential, you would receive grants to pursue the idea and convert it into a business. You could even sell your patent to already established businesses in return for large sums. The whole process encouraged entrepreneurship, invention and a deep trust in the system.  Mind you, this process started over 200 years ago and I don’t need to go into how many successful businesses have come out of the US since then. Both socially and economically, all of these successful ventures have been the architects of the American development story.  Another important measure that America introduced was expansion of the Banking industry. More local banks meant lower interest rates which helped people start small businesses and also purchase their own homes and lands. Again, this whole process encouraged entrepreneurship and trust in the system which are key to the development of any society. Equal efforts were made to invest in research programs where government offered grants to promote knowledge rather profits. 

Now India is at the cusp of another general election and many feel this is a watershed moment in the Indian political system. A new government would solve all the ills afflicting the society and finally bring much needed economic growth and prosperity. The talk may have shifted to developmental from communal politics; the vision of every party remains archaic. Citing the US model of development, no one in Indian politics realizes or talks about how important entrepreneurship, banking and education are to a long lasting robust economy. Grant of patents to Indians to foreigners is roughly at the ratio of 1:9 and as a result, ratio of Indian patents to foreign patent is also roughly 1:9. India may have expanded the banking sector in the recent past but personal loans still come at over 13% interest rates. In an already developing society, how do you expect the people to pay back the loan with such high interest? Government’s investment in education is extremely low and private companies face a huge red tape to enter. Most of the institutions are opening up for the sole purpose of profits without motivating individuals to invent or create a knowledge base for the society. 
     
Now is there a party that wishes to address such fundamental flaws in a system? A long ruling Congress party is presently the butt of all jokes and will most likely be dethroned by another equally incompetent party, The BJP. The party led by a very astute marketer and a narcissist, Narendra Modi, is currently all hype and no substance. Mr. Modi spends 90% of his time ridiculing congress and perhaps only 10% on his vision. I can’t even count five policy measures he has mentioned in his speeches (many factually wrong) that would turn India’s fortunes. His vision is simply the Gujarat model, a state which doesn’t always rank in top 3 of India’s most developmental indices. Gujarat currently ranks at #9 for GDP per capita income and I need not say more about its development compared to other states. Moreover, one is yet to see the trend where Gujaratis have stopped migrating to foreign countries or on the flip side where Gujaratis are flocking back to Gujarat anticipating greener pastures. Mr. Modi has talked about skilled based economy thereby promoting education that equips you with employable skills. A very good approach to solve the current unemployment problem but it will only be a band-aid solution that will fizzle out in the future when other countries, through research and innovation, advance with superior ideas and technology. You will continue to chase your tails.

The same BJP party came to power in 1998 and lost in 2004 despite showing good growth in the economy. One may ask why? The answer lies in its jobless growth and a growth that marginalized the poor and left them behind. I often wonder how Indians living in the west equate road infrastructure and tall buildings to real development. When you don’t have a toilet to defecate every morning, what good does a nice 4 lanes highway do for you? I am afraid same will happen again if a right wing party is voted to power which on the outside is pro investment but has no vision for the relegated sections of the society. I am the first one to admit that the strong economic development through privatization and foreign investment are paramount to eventually supporting the poor but if that’s the ONLY agenda, the development will come at the cost of abandoning few generations and those people don’t deserve that. After all, lifting millions out of poverty takes many years of concerted effort but if the society is not independent from the foreign investment, it will continue to play the catch up game. India currently needs a balanced approach of being a good destination for investment and creating healthy communities right at the bottom. It needs communities where people have nutritious diets (not just basic), proper schooling with training in computers, clean sanitation systems and playgrounds for kids. Without all these facilities, millions will never develop the brains and confidence to become future leaders and successful entrepreneurs. That’s a huge burden on any society.